Estimating in the 21st Century

When I learned to estimate we had printed estimate sheets which had all the fittings listed in a column and I would go over the drawings making little marks, in groups of five, beside each fitting. Then I would count up all the pieces of pipe. Hub pipe has to be counted in 10', 5', and 30” lengths – single hubs and double hubs. Next I added up all of the marks, extended the fitting and pipe prices to find my material cost.

After that came hangers, pounds of lead, rolls of solder, tanks of gas, etc. until all the material was accounted for. Labor required a little experience as to how long things take men to do – everything from digging trenches to pouring joints to setting fixtures. But everything was done on paper and calculations were done on an old adding machine. We stapled the tape from the adding machine to the quote when we were done in case we needed to go back and check something.

Today everything is electronics and spread sheets. That's not a bad thing. We do take-offs from .pdf drawings, enter quantities into spread sheets and automate as much as we can. On a spread sheet you can include labor in a column right beside material cost and Excel will calculate both when you enter a quantity of fittings or pipe. I even have equations that pull the pipe and fitting quantities from one sheet and calculate the hangers and no-hub couplings I need on another sheet. Same with copper pipe and fittings extending to flux, solder, and mapp gas.

Saving steps saves time and increases accuracy. If I'm tallying pipe on one sheet and then jumping to another sheet to tally couplings and another to tally hangers, I could get in a hurry and miss something. The spread sheet does it automatically and doesn't miss a thing – as long as your macros are set up right. I add a fitting and it adds solder and flux and sand cloth and the labor it takes to make the joint! Everything is fast, efficient, and accurate.

Now as we move into Revit we have tools to cut those steps even more. In Revit we can throw out the process of counting all together. Revit schedules are basic spread sheets. You probably already use them as schedules on your drawings – listing the pipe, fittings, equipment and fixtures. You may even go to your Revit schedules to get your take-off numbers to plug into your estimating spread sheet. But why are you using two spread sheets? Remember, schedules in Revit are just spread sheets you fill with data from families.

Revit schedules have all the basic functions of Excel spread sheets. You can export them as spread sheets. You can print them as spread sheets. And you can apply calculations and formatting JUST LIKE EXCEL SPREAD SHEETS. Now let that sink in.... I can set up my schedule to bring in material and quantities. I can add calcs to the schedule to use those quantities in equations. Now, if my families and calcs are right, when I draw a copper tee Revit adds solder, flux, sand cloth, and labor to the schedule in correct quantities. Revit does my material takeoff as I design and if I delete that tee, Revit adjusts everything!

You can take that to the logical conclusion. If I set my “Estimate Schedule” up like my estimate spreadsheet – with labor burden, overhead, profit, etc – the estimate does itself as I design. When the model is complete, the estimate is complete, and if I make changes – the estimate updates. If I'm given a finished model all I do is create my estimate schedule and I'm done. The estimate fills itself in! If I make changes during coordination, I can compare the new estimate against the old and know exactly what dollar figure that change represents. Instantly!

Disclaimer. As I've said over and over – the model must be an accurate representation of what will be built in the field. If a designer stuck a sanitary tee where there should be a combination, Revit will count a sanitary tee in the estimate. Revit is just a dumb program. You need to survey the model for accuracy and code compliance before you just export a quote. You'll also need to make sure nothing is being missed, like a boiler with a screw-up in the family that keeps it from being listed in the schedule. We're not to the point of AI plumbers yet, so get a plumber to sign off on the model. Better yet, as I've said before You Need a Plumber designing your model in the first place!

Profile: Precision Plumbing - Doing it Right

Courtesy Precision Plumbing - Charlotte, NC

I sat down with Charlie Brown, president of Precision Plumbing in Charlotte, and we talked about how they are using emerging technology to improve quality, production, and profits. Precision is a leader in the local plumbing market and they are fully invested in emerging technologies – more than any plumbing contractor I have talked with.

 Precision is using CADPIPE (see note below) along with other technologies to detail working models at LOD 5 – down to hanger placement and seismic restraints. Then they prefab and pallatize the whole job, use Total Stations to layout underground piping, sleeve and hanger placement, and Just In Time(JIT) delivery to have what is needed on the job site when it is needed. The efficiency is exemplary.

According to Mr. Brown, there have been bumps along the way. Time is always an issue. We all know how general contractors like to award a contract today and start construction yesterday. To achieve full efficiency, Mr. Brown notes, there must be time at the front-end to detail the model, coordinate with other trades, and start prefabrication during the pre-construction phase. As he told me, using BIM to only produce an 'as-built' model at the end of the project is a waste of resources from the contractor's point of view.

I've been preaching on this for awhile, and I've said it time and again on this blog, Building Information Technology will change the way we work if we embrace it in the plumbing industry. Precision Plumbing is a perfect example of that idea. They are leveraging the available technologies and searching for new innovations going forward. But it also needs to be understood and embraced industry wide for full efficiency, and time must be scheduled for contractors to detail models, coordinate, and do the work of prefabrication.

But this isn't a new concept. Mechanical contractors have always required lead time for duct fabrication and were the first of the MEP's to use CAD and automated production. Precision has shown that having that time at the front-end doesn't add to the overall project schedule, it can actually shorten the schedule since much of the work is accomplished in the pre-construction phase through prefabrication. Once the job starts the installation is faster, more accurate, and higher quality. Win-Win, right?

But it's not just the plumbing trade which needs to climb on board – it takes all the MEP contractors to coordinate their work. It does absolutely no good to coordinate my LOD 500 model with the electricians less than 100 model. I'm not picking on electricians, but generally the mechanical contractors are already detailing to a high LOD for their prefabrication of duct and pipe, and Sprinkler Fitters have used prefabrication for years. Plumbers and electricians have traditionally been the slack ones.

I've written a lot so far about design and detailing, but it doesn't end there. As I've suggested in other posts, adoption of the new technologies should be industry wide and organization wide. At Precision they have a modeling team in house, a prefabrication unit, and all their foremen have access to the models and drawings 'in the cloud' via their iPads. It is a complete integration of technology company wide.

That is important. The man in the field needs to understand and embrace the new paradigm. The installation in the field must match what is being modeled and prefabricated or we are all wasting our time. And there needs to be a free flow of information, in all directions, between modeling, prefabrication, and installation. It cannot be a top-down approach dumping pallets of pipe in the field.

Some of those old-guys in the field may be the hardest to drag on board, but they are also the greatest wealth of knowledge and experience in any organization. The technologies are getting easier and easier to use, which helps, and once tradesmen see how it all comes together to make their job easier they will climb on. But that is an important point I've also made before – the technology should make our jobs easier and more productive, not more complicated.

Note: If you've been reading my blog for awhile you know I like Autodesk Revit. SysQue, which I've mentioned here before, plugs into Revit and allows you to get the same level of detail you need for production. I talked to some engineer friends and they tell me they prefer SysQue precisely because it sits on Revit, not AutoCAD like CADPIPE - allowing you all the great features of Revit which AutoCAD lacks. Mr. Brown says he prefers AutoCAD and CADPIPE. But either way, there are tools available to get the detail you need for layout, prefabrication, and production.

Virtually FREE Virtual Reality - Thanks Google

Just imagine. You have your model available to your construction team on everything from their laptops, to tablets, to their phones. But it's not very viewable on a small screen. A tablet or a workstation in the office trailer are better options. But your workers need the information where they work, and carrying around a tablet is bothersome and easy to damage on a construction site. You can print out some drawings, but that doesn't fully utilize the 3D design.

Enter Google Cardboard. No, we're not printing drawings on cardboard. Google Cardboard is an ingenious idea that brings virtual reality to your phone. I've written before about VR Glasses such as Google Glass being used to bring your model alive in the real world. But again – expensive, easily damaged, cumbersome unless they make a safety glasses version for construction.

The cardboard idea takes a simple pattern you download, transfer to cardboard, cut and fold – use and throw away. You could have a stack of the things unfolded waiting for your workers to grab one as needed for virtually no cost. You fold it, slide your phone in, hold it up to your face, and you are seeing your model in 3D virtual reality. It can even be location and movement sensitive using your phone's GPS and tilt.

So here is the scenario. You send a fresh model to your worker in the field via email, or post it to the cloud. Your worker pulls out a cell phone, slips it into the cardboard box, and can look around at the model with a perspective based on their current location. Okay, that pipe you just moved in the model is intersecting a duct which is already in place on site. Your worker snaps a pic and texts it to you.

Now that brings up another possibility. Say in your rendering app you use the phone's camera to allow an overlay of the actual condition with the model. That would only take a slight modification of the Google Cardboard box to uncover the camera lens. Now you are looking through the camera, and at the model, synchronized in real time using a CELL PHONE and a CARDBOARD BOX!

Imagine the possibilities! And all with the cell phone your worker already has, the software you already use, and a free box you cut and folded from an old piece of cardboard destined for the recycle bin. Check out Google Cardboard and play around with it. People are already coding games for the thing. This could revolutionize how we work, and you heard it here first.

2015 - The Future of the Construction Industry

Imagine the future of construction...

You get a BIM model in your morning email from a GC wanting a price. You look over the model, export the material schedules in a spread sheet, and email them to a couple of suppliers for quotes. You get the quotes back, pick the one you want, and import the revised spreadsheet back into the model. Your BIM software updates the material types with the suppliers prices, applies your proprietary filters to add labor costs, overhead, and profits, then outputs a total bid price. You email your bid to the GC.

You've spent less than thirty minutes of your time processing the bid. Most of that time was spent emailing and pouring a cup of coffee. Of course you've done your homework and have all the settings and filters for your BIM software in a file ready to apply. You use them on every job, and at the end you adjust them, but we'll get to that in a moment. If you don't get the job, there is little lost time involved, but you nailed it so we move on.

You take a little time now. You go through the model in more detail and familiarize yourself with the whole project. If you see any problems, you immediately send off an RFI to the GC for clarification. Any cost impacts are documented and the model is updated as needed. The GC schedules the first of many coordination meetings and you get to work. Coordination can be a long or short process depending on the scope and complexity of the project. And the players involved.

Coordination is at times like a negotiation. Each contractor works to assure their space in the building. The mechanical contractor needs his duct work in the same space the electrical contractor needs his main rack of conduit, which is right where the plumber needs to run his main overhead trunk line. It's give and take, but much more efficient now than with crews standing around in the field scratching their heads. You document everything, keep sending RFI's and cost adjustments, and keep updating the model. It starts coming together and the GC is ready to build.

Depending on your company structure and size the package might be handed off to a project manager after the estimator's bid, then to a coordinator, and now to a construction manager, but for simplicity we'll assume you're a one person show and you're taking it to the end. You assemble your team and brief them on the project scope.

The coordinated model is in the cloud, so all your people have access to it on their hand-held devices. You discuss logistics, schedules, and how you plan to proceed. Your team, the people who will actually do the physical work of building the project, offer their ideas and point out problems, or better solutions, the coordination team missed. You note it all for the next coordination meeting. You take your lead foreman with you to the first on site job meeting.

On site everyone is wearing their safety gear and their glasses. It's an open field, but through your glasses you can see the building model in full scale. You notice the weed covered rock outcropping right where the commercial kitchen, and a lot of your underground piping, will be. The GC raises the model exposing the below grade footers and pipe. It confirms your assessment and the mass of pipe in that location.

The GC orders a geological survey and has the results in the model for the next coordination meeting. They plan to do some blasting and undercut the problem areas before construction begins. You archive the geo-model for future use in case your team runs into problems when they start digging. You also remind the GC of the rock clause in your contract.

Construction begins and your team starts excavations. Your equipment operators have the geo-model and the building model plugged into their devices to guide them. Your pipe crews can see the underground piping in the model through their glasses and they place the real pipe exactly as it appears in the model. Work proceeds quickly and efficiently. Material is delivered to the site as needed, the BIM is updated as the installation proceeds, so you always know exactly where you stand in the schedule.

The building grows and other trades are on site working. Your crews and their crews can see each others work represented in the model through their glasses. Your foreman continues to coordinate with the schedule so everything is installed at the proper time—a section of pipe is left out so the mechanical contractor can hang a piece of duct, then fitted in later. Everything proceeds smoothly, and everyone can see exactly where their work is heading.

You attend weekly meetings online from your office and your on site foremen take you on virtual tours allowing you to see through their glasses. If any problems arise your workers can call and you are there instantly, seeing the problem from various viewpoints through their glasses and discussing it with your crew over speaker phone. You are managing a dozen jobs at once easier than you could one job ten years ago, and everything is being recorded and documented for analysis later—making the next project even more efficient.

Your foreman has updated the model in real time with any changes during construction, as have other trades, so at the end of the project the model represents the building as-built. You sit down and go over all of the data and find places you can improve your settings and filters for your BIM software on the front end and make your initial bid even tighter on the next project. You look for ways your people can be more efficient, and how you can support them better going forward. On each project you find less to change because your business is becoming more and more efficient and profitable with every project.

Now this isn't over the rainbow. Every piece of technology mentioned in this article is available today. Contractors are adding tech project-by-project. The early adopters have an edge and will keep their edge as the technology is used more and more. Everyone is talking BIM now and those who started with the software five years ago have an advantage. Contractors who refuse to adapt, or who use the technology only reluctantly, are falling behind. Those who refuse to use it are losing work.

Stay with me and I'll help you keep on the cutting edge of what's possible. Click the link and subscribe to the blog for updates or drop me an email and get inside info before it hits the blog. The future of technology in the building industry is exciting for managers and tradesmen. Don't be left behind.

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